NHC: Elsa 5AM Advisory


...ELSA JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA...

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE

WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...21.0N 79.9W

ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO CUBA

ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from Flamingo to Englewood, Florida has

been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Watch on the west coast of Florida has been

extended northward from Anclote River to Aucilla River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* The Cuban province of Camaguey

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,

Villa Clara, Mayabeque, and Havana

* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

* West coast of Florida from Flamingo to Englewood

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman

* The Cuban province of Artemisa

* The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef

* Florida Bay

* West coast of Florida from Englewood northward to the Aucilla

River

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12

hours. The hurricane conditions are expected to begin shortly after

the first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that

make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to

protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula, coastal Georgia and

the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional

watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was

located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 79.9 West. Elsa is

moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general

motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the

north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Elsa is expected

to move across central and western Cuba later today and pass near

the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near

or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and

Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher

gusts. Some strengthening is possible before Elsa moves over Cuba

later today, followed by some weakening while the center moves over

land. Slight restrengthening is forecast after Elsa moves over the

southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)

from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and

on the web at

www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in

portions of central and western Cuba today. Tropical storm

conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys and

southwestern Florida beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions

are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands this morning,

and in the upper Florida Keys by tonight. Tropical storm conditions

are possible in the watch area along the west coast of Florida

beginning Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal

tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore

flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 ft

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally

dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving

inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following

heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak

surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft

Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft

Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba today, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches

with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will

result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the

Cayman Islands today, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This

rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida

Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2 to 4

inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches are expected

across Florida and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, which

may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

Coastal portions of South Carolina and North Carolina are expected

to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local maximum amounts up to 5

inches Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated flash

and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across south Florida

tonight into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the

southern coast of Cuba today. Swells will increase near the

Florida Keys and south Florida later today and spread northward

along the west coast of Florida tonight and Tuesday. Please

consult products from your local weather office for more details.


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